Tariffs Show Up in the Data
New CPI report
Two economic data reports confirm that tariffs are working…or not working, depending on your political views. My job is to share the data.
Today, we're examining tariff revenue data released on Friday and inflation data released today.
Tariff Revenue
On Friday, the Treasury reported an unexpected budget surplus for June. June saw a surplus of just over $27 billion, following a $316 billion deficit in May. Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and representing a 301% gain from June 2024.
It's important to note that this brought the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion, a 5% increase from the same period last year.
The increase in surplus means that U.S. firms, consumers, or both paid more in taxes. If firms passed these costs on to consumers, it would lead to higher prices.
Inflation Data
This morning, the BLS released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the previous month, the CPI increased by 0.3 percent, representing a 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate.
Economists have been waiting for tariffs to show up in the CPI data. While this is only one month's worth of data, and we need to be cautious about how much to rely on it, it's the first sign that tariffs are passing through the economy and starting to impact prices.
Let's see what happens next month!
-Dr. A
About the Author
Dr. Abdullah Al Bahrani is an economics professor and an award-winning educator. His research focuses on household finance and economic education. In addition to this newsletter, he has a YouTube channel and an Instagram account to share his economic insights. His goal is to improve economic literacy and well-being.
very timely post, thanks!
I haven't looked at the budget data myself just yet (working on a different post), but is there anything interesting to note about spending?
OK. So: the real question is "By how much will tariff revenue offset the budgetary hole caused by the 'Big Beautiful Bill'?" We calculate the BBB will cause $3.4 trillion in added debt, plus another, say, $.6 trill for added interest payments, for a cool $4 trillion in increased national debt, but this will of course be reduced by tariff income. I know tariffs go up and down on a whim; nevertheless, has anyone bothered to try to figure out a likely level of offset?