Yes there are parallels for sure. I remember one of the guys I know in the real estate world mentioned this a few years back and many laughed at him, it took a while but people are seeing it now. One thing I would ask about is the supply chain issues from COVID. What is your read on these timelines? Were the a 1 year timeline for the shock to be identified and a plan to be put in place? If so, that puts the plan in the Biden administration, right?
I do not want to be to political, but it is no secret the oil industry did not operate as well under Biden than in 16-early 20. In fact, after the last debate between Biden and Trump I was called immediately from oil exploration companies seeking investments.
What does this have to do with this subject? If oil keeps dropping and the plans for supply disruptions were reconfigured based on higher oil prices, will the parts of the chain be able to provide discounts to customers? Would this be a way to mitigate the costs on the tariff side? And if so, would this cascade throughout the other aspects of the economy? Not to sound like William Nordhaus, but is oil the key to all of this?
Kevin Warsh has been mentioned in a couple of places as a replacement for Powell, either after or possibly before the end of Powell's term on May 15, 2026. Yes, he has in mind to pursue Trump's agenda of "reshoring", which in Development Economics we used to call "import substitution", which had a bad reputation as an inflationary strategy that encouraged corruption -- seems likely to have similar effects in this instance. That said, there is some merit to a selective reduction is some industries to maintain US strength in time of war, when supply chains would be disrupted. A class discussion around the balance between global security in a time of insecurity and current trade policies, formed in the 90s after the dissolution of the USSR and before the accession of China to the WTO, is in order. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/18/economy/kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-chair/index.html
Very insightful article. I think one major difference is the fed then and now. The current administration will likely replace Powell with a yes who will do everything in their power to push their agenda. The fed had independence back then to raise rates. In a year that may not be the case. Only time will though.
Yes there are parallels for sure. I remember one of the guys I know in the real estate world mentioned this a few years back and many laughed at him, it took a while but people are seeing it now. One thing I would ask about is the supply chain issues from COVID. What is your read on these timelines? Were the a 1 year timeline for the shock to be identified and a plan to be put in place? If so, that puts the plan in the Biden administration, right?
I do not want to be to political, but it is no secret the oil industry did not operate as well under Biden than in 16-early 20. In fact, after the last debate between Biden and Trump I was called immediately from oil exploration companies seeking investments.
What does this have to do with this subject? If oil keeps dropping and the plans for supply disruptions were reconfigured based on higher oil prices, will the parts of the chain be able to provide discounts to customers? Would this be a way to mitigate the costs on the tariff side? And if so, would this cascade throughout the other aspects of the economy? Not to sound like William Nordhaus, but is oil the key to all of this?
Kevin Warsh has been mentioned in a couple of places as a replacement for Powell, either after or possibly before the end of Powell's term on May 15, 2026. Yes, he has in mind to pursue Trump's agenda of "reshoring", which in Development Economics we used to call "import substitution", which had a bad reputation as an inflationary strategy that encouraged corruption -- seems likely to have similar effects in this instance. That said, there is some merit to a selective reduction is some industries to maintain US strength in time of war, when supply chains would be disrupted. A class discussion around the balance between global security in a time of insecurity and current trade policies, formed in the 90s after the dissolution of the USSR and before the accession of China to the WTO, is in order. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/18/economy/kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-chair/index.html
Very insightful article. I think one major difference is the fed then and now. The current administration will likely replace Powell with a yes who will do everything in their power to push their agenda. The fed had independence back then to raise rates. In a year that may not be the case. Only time will though.