A Dangerous Economic Narrative to Be Aware of

Intentional Recession

A new narrative is taking shape as the economy starts to slow and show weaknesses from the current administration's tariff policies and government cuts. It is a dangerous narrative for several reasons.

The narrative is that the administration is knowingly and intentionally causing a recession. The idea is that asset prices have increased drastically and need to be realigned. Some have gone as far as to suggest that crashing asset markets will make it easier for private firms to swoop in and buy distressed assets as a wealth grab.

Why is this Dangerous?

It assumes there is a coherent strategy in place. The approach we have seen so far has been more akin to wild, sweeping cuts without coordination. It also attributes thoughtful planning when there isn't clear evidence that such effort has been put into place.

More critically, this narrative overlooks the human cost of an intentionally planned recession. Recessions cause profound pain to individual lives, and intentionally triggering such widespread suffering would be morally questionable.

The Human Cost of Recessions

Economically, we know that recessions increase joblessness, heighten financial insecurity, and shrink output. However, these clinical terms mask deeper personal tragedies:

Health Impacts

• Increased cancer risk: Research has linked the 2007–08 global financial crisis to excess cancer-related deaths

• Higher suicide rates: Studies show men experience disproportionately higher suicide rates during economic downturns

• Domestic violence spikes: Job losses and financial stress often correlate with increased domestic violence

• Mental health crises: Uncertainty and lack of control during a recession can lead to depression, anxiety, and other mental health conditions

Additional Consequences

• Substance abuse: Economic hardship frequently drives increases in alcohol and drug dependency

• Long-term health deterioration: Health outcomes may worsen not just immediately but for years after a recession

• Strained support systems: Mental health services and social safety nets face overwhelming demand precisely when funding is most likely to be cut

Impact on Children

According to a Brookings study:

Children whose parents are unemployed are at increased risk for experiencing poverty, homelessness and child abuse. Parental unemployment also can have long-term consequences, particularly if it leads to the family entering poverty: a recent analysis found that children who enter poverty during times of recession are less likely to complete high school and attain a bachelor’s degree than children who weather a recession without entering poverty.

The Reality Check

Recessions are not games or economic chess moves—they represent real suffering for millions of people. We should strive to avoid them at all costs. Anyone suggesting that deliberately triggering a recession represents a viable economic strategy demonstrates either a profound misunderstanding of economics or a disturbing indifference to human welfare.

The notion of an "intentional recession" as policy should be viewed with extreme skepticism. Economic policy should aim to create stability and prosperity for all citizens, not manufacture crises that disproportionately harm the most vulnerable among us. When discussing recession as merely a market correction, we dehumanize the real pain experienced by those who lose jobs, homes, and sometimes even hope.

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