Abdullah- It is hard to know what the reasoning behind a given set of policies is. All we know is what the proponents want us to think, as they gladly share that. The other consideration is that we should be careful about proposing conspiracy theories, as most bad consequences are simply a result of human inability or unwillingness to consider the consequences of actions. No, there is not a global cartel of conservatives or Jews or aliens directing the path of humanity. But on a more mundane level, evidence can be discovered. When the President of the United States invites the leader of a foreign country who has been invaded by another, and then tells him he is the cause of the war, we can reasonably assume this was a setup. When a plan for policies to be followed after winning an election is fully drawn up, and a copy of this plan is made public, and then the politician who was a proponent of the plan denies it, but after he wins an election systematically carries out that plan, we can without exaggeration say that this person, who is now President, intended to carry out that plan all along. The consequences of that plan -- Project 2025 -- are precisely the problems as a consequence of the policy choices of President Trump. This is not haphazard -- we know that it is not, because the plan was published well before he was elected, because Mr Trump began to implement the plan in a rigorous way on the first day after he was elected, The consequences of this plan in terms of recessionary potential were well known as soon as it was published: tariffs cause inflation, reducing immigration and ejecting foreign-born workers causes wage inflation and insufficient labor, climate change causes disasters, etc etc. None of this critique is ideological -- it is scientific. So THE ONLY QUESTION is whether the President and other proponents of the plan designed and carried it out because they UNDERSTOOD what would be the scientifically-understood consequences of the plan in terms of creating a recession, increasing prices, causing disasters, etc, or whether they were UNWILLING TO ACCEPT the scientifically-understood consequences. And the likely answer is: some understood, some were foolish, some were ignorant, some simply denied the evidence that was clearly set before them. It is always a mix.
To try to make the cost of recessions real to my students, I discuss the different earnings paths for those who graduate during a recession and those who graduate during an upswing. Much worse to be unlucky to graduate in a super weak labor market. The data is sobering. And it’s just bad luck.
I am hoping that a recession can be avoided or mitigated by a combination of market forces and pressure and some guidance from the FED. They have a lot of work ahead of them. While it maybe unavoidable my hopes is that it is isn't long lasting. Private lay offs were up last month.
Abdullah- It is hard to know what the reasoning behind a given set of policies is. All we know is what the proponents want us to think, as they gladly share that. The other consideration is that we should be careful about proposing conspiracy theories, as most bad consequences are simply a result of human inability or unwillingness to consider the consequences of actions. No, there is not a global cartel of conservatives or Jews or aliens directing the path of humanity. But on a more mundane level, evidence can be discovered. When the President of the United States invites the leader of a foreign country who has been invaded by another, and then tells him he is the cause of the war, we can reasonably assume this was a setup. When a plan for policies to be followed after winning an election is fully drawn up, and a copy of this plan is made public, and then the politician who was a proponent of the plan denies it, but after he wins an election systematically carries out that plan, we can without exaggeration say that this person, who is now President, intended to carry out that plan all along. The consequences of that plan -- Project 2025 -- are precisely the problems as a consequence of the policy choices of President Trump. This is not haphazard -- we know that it is not, because the plan was published well before he was elected, because Mr Trump began to implement the plan in a rigorous way on the first day after he was elected, The consequences of this plan in terms of recessionary potential were well known as soon as it was published: tariffs cause inflation, reducing immigration and ejecting foreign-born workers causes wage inflation and insufficient labor, climate change causes disasters, etc etc. None of this critique is ideological -- it is scientific. So THE ONLY QUESTION is whether the President and other proponents of the plan designed and carried it out because they UNDERSTOOD what would be the scientifically-understood consequences of the plan in terms of creating a recession, increasing prices, causing disasters, etc, or whether they were UNWILLING TO ACCEPT the scientifically-understood consequences. And the likely answer is: some understood, some were foolish, some were ignorant, some simply denied the evidence that was clearly set before them. It is always a mix.
I agree with you. Thanks for your thought-out comment.
To try to make the cost of recessions real to my students, I discuss the different earnings paths for those who graduate during a recession and those who graduate during an upswing. Much worse to be unlucky to graduate in a super weak labor market. The data is sobering. And it’s just bad luck.
Recessions have long-lasting consequences. Your example is a great one and deserves a post in itself. I will work on it.
I am hoping that a recession can be avoided or mitigated by a combination of market forces and pressure and some guidance from the FED. They have a lot of work ahead of them. While it maybe unavoidable my hopes is that it is isn't long lasting. Private lay offs were up last month.
The FED has its work cut out for them.